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Changing Times Number 6 November 2002
Newsletter of the Work & Age Trust
Hi Ho, Hi Ho, It' s Off Work We Go!!A few controversial thoughts on work futures Paul Wildman
I have been tracking job trends for some 25 years and these 'anticipations' (I dislike the mechanistic concept of 'predictions' ) are, to say the least, highly controversial. Nevertheless I trust at least some of them point to a 'work future' worth noting, even acting on now, on behalf of our children' s children. The low job future is one of four principal job future scenarios.
I rate the probability of the low job future scenario occurring as over twice as likely as the other scenarios - double what it was 20 years ago.
Authors such as Gorz, Dator and Rifkin have maintained since the early 1980s that we are facing a 'low job' or even a 'no job' future where for every 5-7 jobs displaced by technocratisation, globalisation and rationalisation only one is created in the high skill-high tech area. As job numbers continue to shrink so to do worker numbers. Re-engineering, casualisation and technology reduce labour. With the greying of the baby boomers those moving into retirement are replaced with fewer younger folk. This means that although the total number of jobs in the economy is declining, unemployment is decreasing because the available number of workers is declining even more rapidly than the number of total jobs.
In societies such as New Zealand and Australia 'baby boomers' will place increasing demands on the social infrastructure between now and 2020. Baby boomers are an informed, educated, politically savvy, relatively affluent (more than their kids for whom the job market has collapsed) lobby group who will increasingly make their needs felt and addressed. This group will want changes in work, health, superannuation, and lifestyle policies.
In 1997 a Canadian survey indicated that some two-thirds of employers and workers recognised the importance of work/life issues in retaining valuable employees and quality of life respectively.
Today, in NeWork terms, job commitment is no longer about conformity, compliance and dedicated hard work. It is about organisational justice; responsible, individual agency; and 'lifestream' management. Lifestream refers to collective ways we manage life, home and work i.e. work/life issues. No longer is 'work' the locus of authenticity with other social and even family concerns taking second or third place. Home and work are now loosely defined, negotiable, and coexistent.
The age at which folk can access their superannuation contributions 'the preservation age' is increasing from 55 to 60 in Australia (to 65 in New Zealand). This, from a NeWork perspective, is absolutely the wrong way to go. It spins on the old dichotomy between work and retirement and forcibly restricts people' s work freedom. It reflects government's lack of ability to be socially innovative and to take charge of the direction of social evolution.
This year the, pointed out that European and western countries, including Australia, are clamping down on illegal immigration. Economic migrants - people leaving their home and/or country to seek a better economic future - are increasing rapidly. The ILO estimates that about 500 million new jobs will need to be created mainly in developing countries over the next decade just to cope with the young people and women entering the labour market. ILO Director-General, Juan Somavia, notes that - no one is producing a scenario for the next decade based on the need to fill this yawning deficit. He believes that - employment continuity and creation is an increasingly fragile yet important foundation for the social (fabric and its underpinning social) protection system. To summarise, key 'anticipations' include
So in conclusion it is my view that in future it will be Hi Ho, Hi Ho, It' s Off to NeWork We Go!! * 'Technology' here is defined broadly to include hard technologies such as communications, computer aided design, production robots, operational robotics such as medical, avionics, transportation and soft technologies such as globalisation and organisational rationalisation.
Employment in New Zealand (Labour Market)'The structure of employment has changed significantly in recent times with education lasting longer, more women working in paid jobs for longer periods and a labour force that has increased mobility and flexibility. In addition, manual work is less common, the duration of the working week has decreased and there is greater variety in the pattern of working hours. Paid employment is no longer as accessible as it was. Over the last two decades, unemployment has become an increasingly visible feature of New Zealand society and growing numbers have found themselves trapped in long-term unemployment. And what does Statistics New Zealand have to say about workers aged 65 and over?
The statistics give weight to Paul's comments about the changing nature of employment and work. So let's look at political party employment policies to see what the visions are for the future of employment and work. The Green Party's 'Work and Employment' Policy For the Green party, 'work is one of the ways we add meaning to our lives, be it the work we do for money, or the work we do raising children, caring for others or contributing to our communities. Work is about dignity, about being valued and valuing each other. Work is essential for our self-esteem, physical, mental and spiritual health and a sense of participating in society.' The Greens believe that full employment with dignity and a living income for those in employment is achievable; the Greens reject the idea that economic stability requires either a significant level of employment or a low-level of protection for those in employment. Their policies include
The National Party of New Zealand has an 'economic' policy. National believes that employment 'is the best antidote to poverty, crime, and the failure of families.' They claim the fastest way to achieve economic growth is to employ more people. They want every New Zealander to have a job. 'Economic growth' , they say, 'accelerates job creation but will not provide jobs for people who lack basic employment skills. Having a skilled work-ready workforce enables more rapid growth and higher levels of employment even in times of economic recession.' Their policies include:
Now 'Spot the Difference' . Here are Labour' s views on work Labour also believes in full employment through a functioning economy. 'Labour believes that employment policy needs to focus on both the demand for labour, and ensuring that workers are in the right place, with the right skills, and the right incentives to take the jobs that are being offered.' Their policies include:
ACT Policy ACT focus strongly on economic growth. 'Good economic growth means higher wages. Low growth means less wages. Low growth and inflation means cuts in peoples wages.' A+B=C eh? If only ..... ACT want to achieve higher incomes, lower unemployment and secure jobs . Their policies include:
New Zealand First New Zealand First does not like unemployment. They believe that reducing unemployment requires creating more wealth. The small size of New Zealand leads them to suggest this must be export-driven. They support the concept of a community wage. United United Future New Zealand wants economic growth balanced by social responsibility. It aims to promote a 'free and open market to provide business with the best opportunity to move New Zealand forward in a positive and prosperous direction'. I will leave you to make your own judgements about whether New Zealand political parties need to reconsider their employment policies in light of current employment trends and likely future scenarios. But before you do have a read of Bernard Lietaer' s book - see below. ____________________________ BooksBernard Lietaer The Future of Money - creating new wealth, work and a wiser world. UK: Random House 2001. Lietaer proposes that inevocable and global change is being driven by four interlocking factors: Monetary Instability, The Age Wave, The Information Revolution, and Climate Change and Species Extinction. Note the example he gives of a major credit transfer programme in Japan. The programme is designed to provide for aged care - you can even bank with the programme for your own old age. A different take on work futures and well worth the read. **** Harry Katz & Owen Darbishire Converging Divergences: Worldwide Changes in Employment Systems. Cornell University Press 2002. Exploring recent changes in employment practices in seven industrialized countries (Australia, Britain, Germany, Italy, Japan, Sweden, and the United States) and in the automobile and telecommunications industries, the authors find that traditional national systems of employment are being challenged by four cross-national patterns: low-wage, human resource management, Japanese-oriented, and joint team-based strategies. The authors show that these changing employment patterns are closely related to the decline of unions and growing income inequality. Drawing upon plant-level evidence on emerging employment practices, they provide a comprehensive analysis of changes in employment systems and labor-management relations. They conclude that while the variation in employment patterns is increasing within countries, evidence suggests that there is much commonality across countries in the nature of that variation and also similarity in the processes through which variation is appearing. Hence the term "converging divergences." And for bedtime reading!! DIA and MSD have just released a draft paper entitled A Framework for Sustainable Communities. Contact Dr Terrence Loomis, Department of Internal Affairs, PO Box 805, Wellington Ph +64 4 494 0584 Terrence.Loomis@dia.govt.nz Portfolio Work Marketplace is a discussion paper that suggests there is a market gap between people working portfolio-style and small enterprises (SME). Take a look at the paper on our website www.nework.co.nz. We would value your feedback.
Work & Age NewsWork & Age is continuing to support the Youth Enterprise Incubator located on the top floor of Wellington Railway station. Its first year has been one of building its base. They are particularly keen to attract more 20 something entrepreneurs. Also in 2003 they will be building their mentor base. To find out more visit - www.nrg.org.nz
Skills shortages - Roger Tweedy comments ...... there has been considerable media coverage of skills shortages in Aotearoa/New Zealand. In this debate we congratulate BNZ Chief Economist Tony Alexander for raising the issue of 'the big pool of over-50 year olds not working'. The Dominion Post (4.10.02) reports Mr Alexander as saying that there is a whole group of very skilled, experienced people in this age group and that the business sector should tap this resource. Work & Age responded to this article with the comment that whilst in total agreement with Mr Alexander that this pool of talent is available, employers shouldn't assume that this group will flood back into the traditional market. ' A number of this group are quite disillusioned after years of being turned away.- Companies will need to look at transition assistance and flexible options that allow this group to be rehired. For further information see the 'Market Place for Portfolio Workers'
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Changing Times is edited by Elizabeth Clements. If you would like to contribute send your experiences of portfolio work, book reviews, articles on these issues or comments on matters in this edition to portfolio@paradise.net.nz or to PO Box 9826, Wellington.Work & Age Trust Level 2/57 Willis St, Wellington Ph. 04-499-1048 Fax 04-499-3907 Email nework@xtra.co.nz |
© 2003 The Nework Centre | email neworknz@yahoo.co.nz |
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